2026 Fantasy Football Sleepers
A sleeper isn't a vibe — it's a mispriced asset. We define a sleeper as a player our ML model ranks higher than the market's ADP. These 30 are sorted by the size of the gap: a player ranked #45 by the model but going at ADP #80 has an "ADP gap" of +35 — that's 35 picks of value the market is leaving on the table.
Projections are PPR by default. Every player has a full SHAP explainer that shows why the model is bullish (target share, opportunity, scheme fit, age curve) so you can sanity-check before drafting. Updated November 3, 2026.
Why no rookies here: the model can't reliably project a player with zero NFL games. Rookies get comp-based defaults that we won't represent as "market mispricings." This list is veterans only — players with last-season production the model can actually feature.
| # | Player | Pos | Pos ADP | Model Pos | Pos Gap | Proj PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alvin Kamara | RB NO | RB40 | RB22 | +18 | 10.6 |
| 2 | Josh Jacobs | RB GB | RB25 | RB8 | +17 | 13.8 |
| 3 | James Conner | RB ARI | RB43 | RB28 | +15 | 0.3 |
| 4 | Derrick Henry | RB BAL | RB11 | RB4 | +7 | 15.9 |
| 5 | Travis Etienne | RB NO | RB17 | RB10 | +7 | 13.2 |
| 6 | Zach Charbonnet | RB SEA | RB36 | RB29 | +7 | 0.1 |
| 7 | J.K. Dobbins | RB DEN | RB31 | RB25 | +6 | 10.7 |
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