Edge ProFantasy

Edge Pro Fantasy · 2026 Season

The fantasy tool that
actually shows its work.

Live snake and auction draft engine. SHAP explanations on every projection so you know why the model rated a player where it did. Unlimited Sleeper / ESPN / Yahoo live sync — no per-draft caps. Backtested accuracy public on this page, not buried in marketing copy.

693 playersLightGBM modelVBD rankedLive Sleeper sync

Free Tools

No signup required.

Four public surfaces fed by the same ML model that powers the paid Draft Tool. Try them, then decide.

Why Edge Pro

What we do that the rest of the market doesn't.

Four things we offer at our price point that competitors either charge a lot more for, gate behind higher tiers, or don't do at all.

Live auction tool

$24.99 vs $264

Full auction draft engine — at one-tenth the price.

Real-time inflation tracking, bid recommendations that adjust as opponents overpay, CPU mock auctions for practice, market-state warnings. Draft Sharks gates the same feature set behind a $264/yr tier. We include it at $24.99.

Explainable ML

SHAP per player

Every projection comes with a SHAP-based 'why'.

Click any player and see exactly which features — target share, pass rate, age, draft capital — drove the projection. No other major fantasy tool publishes per-player feature contributions. You're not asked to trust a black box.

Backtested accuracy

2022-2025 verified

Public rank correlations across four real seasons.

RB 0.84, WR 0.80, QB 0.65, TE 0.64 — Spearman rank correlation against actual end-of-season finish, 2022-2025. Most competitors don't publish accuracy at all. The ones that do market 'most accurate' claims without methodology.

Unlimited live sync

No sync caps

Sleeper, ESPN, Yahoo — no per-draft caps.

Mock your draft 20 times, sync 5 real leagues. We don't meter it. FantasyPros caps live syncs at 10 (MVP tier) or 50 (HOF) and charges $71.88+/yr. Sync as many leagues as you want.

Model accuracy

How closely the rankings actually track end-of-season finish.

Backtested across 2022–2025 (four full seasons). For each position, we compare the model's pre-season ranking to where players actually finished. A score of 1.00 would mean perfect ranking; 0.00 would mean random. All four positions are highly significant (p<0.05).

RBrank correlation
0.84Very strong

Best signal — running back projections are the most reliable.

WRrank correlation
0.80Strong

Wide receiver model picks up role, target volume, and air-yard signal.

QBrank correlation
0.65Moderate

Harder to project — small sample of starters, big rookie/injury swings.

TErank correlation
0.64Moderate

Thin starter pool magnifies variance year to year.

Methodology: Spearman rank correlation between pre-season model rank and end-of-season PPR rank, computed per position per season, averaged across 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025. Range across the four seasons is roughly ±0.10 from the average shown. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — but consistent correlation across four independent seasons is meaningful signal.

Projections shown across this site assume standard full-PPR 12-team scoring. When you link your own league with custom rules (TE premium, half-PPR, 6pt passing TDs, etc.), the board will re-score each player against your league's ruleset.

Receipts

Where the model called it before the market did.

These are real backtested 2022–2025 calls — players the model rated significantly higher than consensus ADP, who went on to outperform their draft cost.

RB2023
Raheem Mostert
MIA
RB35
ADP · R8
RB17
Model
RB5
Actual
Drafted at RB35. Model said RB17. Finished RB5 30 spots above ADP.
WR2022
DeVonta Smith
PHI
WR39
ADP · R8
WR24
Model
WR9
Actual
Drafted at WR39. Model said WR24. Finished WR9 30 spots above ADP.
WR2025
Michael Wilson
ARI
WR70
ADP · R16
WR41
Model
WR10
Actual
Drafted at WR70. Model said WR41. Finished WR10 60 spots above ADP.
WR2024
Jerry Jeudy
DEN
WR59
ADP · R12
WR20
Model
WR10
Actual
Drafted at WR59. Model said WR20. Finished WR10 49 spots above ADP.
WR2022
Christian Kirk
ARI
WR37
ADP · R8
WR19
Model
WR11
Actual
Drafted at WR37. Model said WR19. Finished WR11 26 spots above ADP.
RB2024
Chuba Hubbard
CAR
RB41
ADP · R10
RB21
Model
RB13
Actual
Drafted at RB41. Model said RB21. Finished RB13 28 spots above ADP.
WR2022
Tyler Lockett
SEA
WR35
ADP · R8
WR12
Model
WR13
Actual
Drafted at WR35. Model said WR12. Finished WR13 22 spots above ADP.
RB2022
Jamaal Williams
DET
RB44
ADP · R13
RB22
Model
RB13
Actual
Drafted at RB44. Model said RB22. Finished RB13 31 spots above ADP.

Methodology: model rank reflects pre-season projections (LightGBM, walk-forward validated). ADP rank sourced from MyFantasyLeague consensus at draft time. Actual rank is end-of-season PPR finish. Selection criteria: model rated player ≥8 positional spots higher than ADP, player finished ≥12 spots above their ADP rank, and ended top-30 at position. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results.

693
Players modeled
QB · RB · WR · TE · K
LightGBM
ML model
Walk-forward validation
VBD
Ranking method
Value above replacement
SHAP
Model explainability
Why each player lands where they do
Live
Draft sync
Sleeper WebSocket
2026
Season
Updated pipeline

What's included

Auction Draft Engine

Live inflation, smart bid recs, mock practice room.

Real auctions are won by knowing when the pool has cooled enough to grab value. Our engine tracks live inflation factor, surfaces 'market is hot/cool' warnings, and recommends a max bid for every player given your budget, roster need, and the live market. Practice in our CPU mock room — comes with the Draft Tool.

Live inflation trackingBid recommendationsCPU mock practiceSnake + auction

ML Projections

693 players. Ranked by what actually wins.

LightGBM model trained on 16 seasons of NFL data (2010–2025) with walk-forward validation. Every player gets a projected points per game, floor, ceiling, and availability estimate — plus a plain-English explanation of what drove the projection, including injury-context and QB-stability signals most models ignore.

16 seasons of training dataVBD rankedFloor / ceilingSHAP explanations

ADP Gap Detection

Find undervalued players before your draft.

The ADP gap overlay compares our model rank to consensus average draft position. Green means the model rates a player significantly higher than the market — historically that's where draft-day edge lives.

Model vs. ADPColor-coded gapsBoom candidate validationWeekly refresh

Live Draft Board

Real-time recommendations while you draft.

Sleeper, ESPN, or Yahoo — auto-sync your live draft. Every pick updates the board: the recommendation engine recalculates supply/demand ratios, positional scarcity, and your roster needs in real time. Compare two players side-by-side with a pros/cons breakdown before you click pick.

Tri-platform WS syncSupply/demand enginePlayer comparisonHandcuff alerts

The model

Why VBD, and why it matters more than raw points

Value Based Drafting

A RB who scores 180 points in a league where the baseline RB scores 140 is worth more than a QB who scores 300 in a league where baseline QBs score 280. VBD measures points above the last starter you'd have to use — the true metric of draft value.

LightGBM + Walk-Forward

The projection model is a gradient-boosted tree trained on 16 seasons (2010–2025) of trailing-season stats, opportunity metrics, team context, injury reports, IR designations, QB stability, and combine data. Walk-forward validation means every prediction is tested as if deployed live — no hindsight baked in.

SHAP Explanations

For every player, the model surfaces which features drove the projection — PPR points per game, target share, carry share, team pass rate, or draft capital for rookies. You see the why, not just the number.

Pricing

Pick the tool you need.

The Draft Tool includes everything in Projections.

Draft Tool unlocks

  • Live Sleeper / ESPN / Yahoo draft sync
  • Real-time recommendation engine
  • Player comparison side-by-side
  • Handcuff & positional scarcity alerts
  • Custom league roster slots + scoring
  • Snake & auction draft support

Projections unlocks

  • Weekly-refreshed projections — 693 players
  • Rankings + positional tiers
  • Waiver Wire (graded adds, weekly)
  • Trade Analyzer + Lineup Optimizer
  • Start / Sit + Schedule Strength
  • Boom Candidates + League Grader
  • Player Compare head-to-head
  • SHAP model explanations per player
Edge Pro Fantasy is a fantasy sports analytics tool. Not affiliated with any sportsbook or betting service.