2026 Fantasy Football Sleepers
A sleeper isn't a vibe — it's a mispriced asset. We define a sleeper as a player our ML model ranks higher than the market's ADP. These 30 are sorted by the size of the gap: a player ranked #45 by the model but going at ADP #80 has an "ADP gap" of +35 — that's 35 picks of value the market is leaving on the table.
Projections are PPR by default. Every player has a full SHAP explainer that shows why the model is bullish (target share, opportunity, scheme fit, age curve) so you can sanity-check before drafting. Updated September 15, 2026.
Why no rookies here: the model can't reliably project a player with zero NFL games. Rookies get comp-based defaults that we won't represent as "market mispricings." This list is veterans only — players with last-season production the model can actually feature.
| # | Player | Pos | Pos ADP | Model Pos | Pos Gap | Proj PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan Love | QB GB | QB19 | QB8 | +11 | 18.4 |
| 2 | Bo Nix | QB DEN | QB11 | QB2 | +9 | 18.2 |
| 3 | Patrick Mahomes | QB KC | QB14 | QB5 | +9 | 18.8 |
| 4 | Brock Purdy | QB SF | QB15 | QB6 | +9 | 18.6 |
| 5 | Trevor Lawrence | QB JAX | QB12 | QB4 | +8 | 18.9 |
| 6 | Geno Smith | QB NYJ | QB31 | QB23 | +8 | 17.3 |
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