2026 NFL Fantasy Football Rankings

Edge Pro Fantasy uses a LightGBM gradient-boosted regression model trained on 16 seasons (2010-2025) of play-by-play, snap counts, target share, depth charts, injury reports, and IR designations. Players are sorted by Value-Based Drafting (VBD) — projected points above a replacement-level starter at their position — not raw projected points.

The public /rankings/2026 page shows full-PPR 12-team rankings by default. If you link your real league (Sleeper, ESPN, or Yahoo) the rankings re-score in the browser against your actual scoring rules (TE premium, 6-pt passing TDs, half-PPR, custom kicker scoring, etc.) without needing to retrain the model.

Walk-forward validated across 2022-2025. Spearman rank correlation of pre-season model rank vs end-of-season finish: RB 0.84, WR 0.80, QB 0.65, TE 0.64. All four positions statistically significant (p<0.05). Receipts of historical model calls vs market ADP are published on the homepage and are individually verifiable.

Value-Based Drafting (VBD) is each player's projected points above a replacement-level starter at the same position. It accounts for positional scarcity: a 280-point QB only beats replacement by 20 points, while a 220-point RB might beat replacement by 60. VBD is what actually wins drafts because it answers 'how much more does this player give me than the next-best available at the same slot' rather than just 'who scores the most points overall.'

ADP refreshes daily from FantasyPros consensus drafts. Player status (injuries, depth chart changes, suspensions) syncs every few hours. The full projection model is re-run when feature inputs move materially — typically weekly in offseason and after every NFL game in-season.

Yes. Every projection has a SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) feature attribution that shows exactly which inputs drove the number — target share, snap rate, age curve, scheme change, prior IR weeks, supporting cast quality, team pass rate, and so on. Click any player on the cheatsheet view to see the per-feature contribution breakdown.

Yes. The /rankings/2026 page, the /cheatsheet PDF, the /sleepers mispricing list, and the /mock draft simulator are all free with no signup required. The paid Draft Tool ($24.99 one-time, full season) adds live recommendations during your real draft via Sleeper, ESPN, or Yahoo sync.

Returning-from-injury QBs called 12 of 12 directionally correct vs ADP across 2022-2025: 8 fade calls all under-performed (Watson 23, Lance 22, Watson 24, Levis 24, Garoppolo 23, Richardson 25, Brissett 24, Darnold 23), and 4 buy calls all beat ADP (Geno 22, Daniel Jones 22 and 25, Kyler 23). The model reads weeks-on-IR, prior availability rate, mobility, supporting cast, and age curve — not just last year's games-played count.