2026 NFL Fantasy Football Rankings
Our 2026 fantasy football rankings are generated by a LightGBM quantile-regression model trained on 16 seasons (2010–2025) of play-by-play, snap-counts, target-share, depth-chart, injury report, and IR designation data. Players are sorted by Value-Based Drafting (VBD) — the projected points each player produces above a replacement-level starter at their position — which is what actually wins drafts, not raw projected points. We refresh ADP daily and re-run the projections weekly through the season. Last update: June 11, 2026.
Every player has a SHAP explainer (click into the cheatsheet view for the full breakdown). For a hands-on test of how the model recommends picks live during a draft, try the free Mock Draft simulator.
| # | Player | Pos | Team | Bye | ADP | Proj PPG | VBD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Allen | QB | BUF | 7 | 28 | 23.1 | 5.6 |
| 2 | Jalen Hurts | QB | PHI | 10 | 80 | 20.3 | 2.8 |
| 3 | Jared Goff | QB | DET | 6 | 102 | 19.2 | 1.7 |
| 4 | Trevor Lawrence | QB | JAX | 7 | 82 | 19.1 | 1.6 |
| 5 | Brock Purdy | QB | SF | 8 | 95 | 18.9 | 1.4 |
| 6 | Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | 14 | 74 | 18.7 | 1.3 |
| 7 | Drake Maye | QB | NE | 11 | 60 | 18.6 | 1.2 |
| 8 | Bo Nix | QB | DEN | 10 | 109 | 18.6 | 1.1 |
| 9 | Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | 5 | 96 | 18.5 | 1.0 |
| 10 | Matthew Stafford | QB | LAR | 11 | 95 | 18.0 | 0.5 |
| 11 | Justin Herbert | QB | LAC | 7 | 78 | 17.9 | 0.4 |
| 12 | Lamar Jackson | QB | BAL | 13 | 52 | 17.8 | 0.3 |
| 13 | Caleb Williams | QB | CHI | 10 | 80 | 17.5 | 0.0 |
| 14 | Jaxson Dart | QB | NYG | 8 | 102 | 17.4 | -0.1 |
| 15 | Jayden Daniels | QB | WAS | 7 | 70 | 17.1 | -0.3 |
| 16 | Baker Mayfield | QB | TB | 10 | 119 | 16.8 | -0.7 |
| 17 | Daniel Jones | QB | IND | 13 | 151 | 16.5 | -1.0 |
| 18 | Joe Burrow | QB | CIN | 6 | 55 | 15.3 | -2.2 |
| 19 | Jordan Love | QB | GB | 11 | 120 | 15.2 | -2.3 |
| 20 | Geno Smith | QB | NYJ | 13 | 181 | 15.2 | -2.3 |
| 21 | Justin Fields | QB | KC | 5 | 404 | 15.0 | -2.5 |
| 22 | Joe Flacco | QB | CIN | 6 | 390 | 14.9 | -2.5 |
| 23 | C.J. Stroud | QB | HOU | 8 | 141 | 14.9 | -2.6 |
| 24 | Kyler Murray | QB | MIN | 6 | 123 | 14.4 | -3.1 |
| 25 | Tua Tagovailoa | QB | ATL | 11 | 201 | 14.0 | -3.5 |
| 26 | Kirk Cousins | QB | LV | 13 | 241 | 13.7 | -3.8 |
| 27 | Anthony Richardson | QB | IND | 13 | 348 | 13.6 | -3.9 |
| 28 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | PIT | 9 | 171 | 13.6 | -3.9 |
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2026 Fantasy Rankings FAQ
How are these 2026 NFL fantasy rankings generated?
Edge Pro Fantasy uses a LightGBM gradient-boosted regression model trained on 16 seasons (2010-2025) of play-by-play, snap counts, target share, depth charts, injury reports, and IR designations. Players are sorted by Value-Based Drafting (VBD) — projected points above a replacement-level starter at their position — not raw projected points.
Are the 2026 rankings PPR, half-PPR, or standard?
The public /rankings/2026 page shows full-PPR 12-team rankings by default. If you link your real league (Sleeper, ESPN, or Yahoo) the rankings re-score in the browser against your actual scoring rules (TE premium, 6-pt passing TDs, half-PPR, custom kicker scoring, etc.) without needing to retrain the model.
How accurate are Edge Pro Fantasy projections?
Walk-forward validated across 2022-2025. Spearman rank correlation of pre-season model rank vs end-of-season finish: RB 0.84, WR 0.80, QB 0.65, TE 0.64. All four positions statistically significant (p<0.05). Receipts of historical model calls vs market ADP are published on the homepage and are individually verifiable.
What is VBD and why use it instead of projected points?
Value-Based Drafting (VBD) is each player's projected points above a replacement-level starter at the same position. It accounts for positional scarcity: a 280-point QB only beats replacement by 20 points, while a 220-point RB might beat replacement by 60. VBD is what actually wins drafts because it answers 'how much more does this player give me than the next-best available at the same slot' rather than just 'who scores the most points overall.'
How often are the 2026 rankings updated?
ADP refreshes daily from FantasyPros consensus drafts. Player status (injuries, depth chart changes, suspensions) syncs every few hours. The full projection model is re-run when feature inputs move materially — typically weekly in offseason and after every NFL game in-season.
Can I see why the model has a player ranked where it is?
Yes. Every projection has a SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) feature attribution that shows exactly which inputs drove the number — target share, snap rate, age curve, scheme change, prior IR weeks, supporting cast quality, team pass rate, and so on. Click any player on the cheatsheet view to see the per-feature contribution breakdown.
Is there a free version of these rankings?
Yes. The /rankings/2026 page, the /cheatsheet PDF, the /sleepers mispricing list, and the /mock draft simulator are all free with no signup required. The paid Draft Tool ($24.99 one-time, full season) adds live recommendations during your real draft via Sleeper, ESPN, or Yahoo sync.
How does the model handle players returning from injury?
Returning-from-injury QBs called 12 of 12 directionally correct vs ADP across 2022-2025: 8 fade calls all under-performed (Watson 23, Lance 22, Watson 24, Levis 24, Garoppolo 23, Richardson 25, Brissett 24, Darnold 23), and 4 buy calls all beat ADP (Geno 22, Daniel Jones 22 and 25, Kyler 23). The model reads weeks-on-IR, prior availability rate, mobility, supporting cast, and age curve — not just last year's games-played count.
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